Iran, Venezuela, and US Policy

Ongoing | Iran, Venezuela, US

• President Trump is scheduled to be briefed on Tuesday regarding potential follow-on measures, including military, cyber, and economic options, in response to the protests in Iran.
• Trump stated on January 11 that the Iranian government had reached out to propose talks, but the U.S. may “have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting”.
• The President threatened intervention if the Islamic Republic kills demonstrators, and when asked if the violent response crossed a red line, Trump said, “they’re starting to — it looks like it”.
• The Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf threatened that if the U.S. strikes Iran, both Israel and all American military centers, bases, and ships in the region “will be our legitimate targets”.
• In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro supporters rallied on January 10 following Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces on January 3.
• Venezuela’s interim president pledged cooperation with the US regarding demands for access to the country’s oil reserves.

US-China Competition and Trade

Ongoing | China, Japan, Taiwan, US

• **China Blocks Rare Earth Exports to Japan:** China reportedly halted the export of rare earths and magnets to some Japanese firms on January 8 in direct retaliation for Tokyo’s possible military action in a Taiwan crisis. This follows a January 6 ban on “dual use” equipment exports to Japan.
• **US Tech Exports to China:** Washington greenlit the sale of Nvidia’s advanced H200 chips to Beijing, an arrangement critics warn risks boosting a rival’s compute capabilities integral to modern military applications.
• **US Arms Sales and Deterrence in Indo-Pacific:** The administration announced an $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and loitering munitions. China responded by sanctioning U.S. defense firms and launching simulated blockade drills around Taiwan.
• **Reducing Critical Mineral Reliance:** U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to urge G7 nations and others on Monday to step up efforts to reduce reliance on critical minerals from China.

International Crises and Alliances

Ongoing | Global

• **BRICS Naval Drills Off South Africa:** Chinese, Russian, and Iranian warships launched a week of naval drills with South Africa off the Cape Town coast on January 9. South Africa risks further ire from the U.S. by hosting these navies.
• **UNRWA Pivot to Turkey Amid Hamas Concerns:** The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) plans to open an office in Ankara, Turkey, a move criticized for potentially giving Turkey a vehicle to provide cover for Hamas, given Turkey’s existing support for the terror group.
• **Federal Reserve Probe Condemned:** Former Federal Reserve chairs and top economists condemned a federal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.
• **UN Court Hearings on Myanmar Genocide:** The UN’s top court began hearings in a long-running case brought by Gambia, accusing Myanmar of genocide against the Rohingya minority group.
• **Southern Transitional Council Dissolution and Internal Rift (Yemen):** The Southern Transitional Council (STC) secretary-general announced the group would be dismantled effective January 9 after its leader fled to the UAE. This move is contested and reflects an open feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Security and Recommendations

• **Recommended US/EU Action Against Iran’s Repression Apparatus:** The U.S. and European Union should sanction the Chinese firm Tiandy for supplying surveillance equipment to Iran’s security services. The EU should also designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
• **Recommended Economic Policy Shift:** A report recommends moving toward a “near-global economy” integrated only by countries respecting market principles. This includes adopting “Ally-Shoring” to decouple critical supply chains and creating an “Economic Pentagon” to coordinate U.S. economic statecraft.

Iran Nationwide Anti-Regime Movement

Since December 28, 2025 | Iran (185 cities, 31 provinces)

• The nationwide anti-regime movement, now entering its third week, is the most sustained and geographically expansive in the Islamic Republic’s history.
• The regime has imposed a near-total internet blackout since January 8, making precise casualty figures difficult to determine. Estimates of protesters killed range from over 500 to potentially 6,000, with over 100 security personnel also killed.
• Security forces have been seen opening fire on protesters using shotguns and automatic weapons.
• The regime deployed more than 800 fighters from regional Shiite militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah and Iraqi groups, to reinforce its repression apparatus.
• Fears of defections within the armed forces are growing, evidenced by a now-deleted section of a January 9 IRGC statement that warned against “defiance, desertion, or disobedience” among military personnel.

UK Soccer Dispute Highlights Islamist Control

January 6, 2026 | Birmingham, England

• The leader of the UK Conservative Party called for the resignation of the Chief Constable of the West Midlands Police after Israeli Maccabi Tel Aviv fans were banned from a match.
• The police are under investigation by the British police watchdog for allegedly caving to local Islamist threats and fabricating evidence to suggest the Israeli fans were the source of potential disorder.
• Police received “high confidence intelligence” that “elements of the community in West Midlands” wanted to arm themselves, leading to the decision to ban the fans.

Vehicle Incident at Anti-Iranian Regime Rally

January 11, 2026 | Westwood, Los Angeles, California

• A U-Haul box truck was driven down a street crowded with marchers demonstrating in support of the Iranian people.
• Protesters scrambled to avoid the vehicle and subsequently swarmed the truck to attack the driver after it stopped several blocks away.
• Two people were evaluated by paramedics, but both declined treatment.

New York City Nurses Walkout

Ongoing | New York City

• Approximately 15,000 nurses walked out of three major hospital systems (Mount Sinai Hospital, NewYork-Presbyterian, and Montefiore Medical Center) due to stalled contract negotiations.
• Hospitals hired temporary nurses to maintain operations.

Man Pleads Not Guilty in DC Pipe Bomb Case

January 6, 2021 incident; Plea on January 9, 2026 | Washington, D.C.

• Virginia resident Brian J. Cole Jr. pleaded not guilty to charges related to planting two pipe bombs outside the Republican National Committee (RNC) and Democratic National Committee (DNC) headquarters on the eve of the Capitol riot.
• Prosecutors state Cole confessed to the placement, hoping the explosives would detonate and generate news coverage.
• Cole told investigators he wanted to target the political parties because he believed the 2020 election was stolen.

Cyber Operations and Technology

Ongoing | Global, Venezuela

• **Cyber Operations in Venezuela Raid:** President Trump stated the U.S. used cyber operations to “turn off the lights” in Caracas during the military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro.
• **FBI Warning on QR Code Phishing Attacks:** The FBI warned that hackers are utilizing QR codes in phishing attacks.
• **International Blocks on xAI’s Grok Chatbot:** Malaysia and Indonesia blocked access to xAI’s Grok chatbot over mounting outrage that the tool was used to produce sexually explicit deepfakes, including nonconsensual images of women and children.
• **AI Technology Developments:** Apple selected Google’s Gemini to power its artificial intelligence features, including a new iteration of Siri. Separately, Nvidia and Eli Lilly announced a joint $1 billion investment in an AI-powered drug discovery lab.
• **IoT Cybersecurity Program in Doubt:** The future of the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) Cyber Trust Mark Program is questionable after the lead administrator withdrew due to an investigation into its ties to China.

Iran Sanctions Evasion via Cryptocurrency

Since 2023 | Iran, UK

• Iranian security forces reportedly used two cryptocurrency exchanges registered in Britain to move approximately $1 billion since 2023, evading international economic sanctions.

Russia Exploits Migrant Women to Build Iranian Drones

Ongoing | Russia (SEZ Alabuga), Latin America (12+ countries)

• Russia launched a rapid labor recruitment drive, the Alabuga Start program, targeting young women ages 18 to 22 across at least 12 Latin American countries with false promises of high wages.
• The recruits are allegedly subjected to grueling conditions, assembling Iranian-designed Geran-2 (Shahed-136) and other drones for Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
• This recruitment effort, which relies on AI-generated promotional videos and social media platforms, is assessed as likely qualifying as human trafficking and forced labor.
• **Recommended Action:** The U.S. should broaden sanctions to encompass facilitators and individual recruiters, increase diplomatic engagement with Latin American governments, and pressure online platforms to remove accounts involved in the operation.

Deadly New Year’s Bar Fire Investigation

January 1, 2026 | Crans-Montana, Swiss Alps, Switzerland

• Prosecutors detained Jacques Moretti, the owner of Le Constellation bar, following a New Year’s Day fire that killed 40 people and injured 116.
• Officials noted the bar had not been inspected in the last five years, suggesting a “culture of reckless risk-taking”.

Investigation into Baltic Sea Cable Damage

Damage occurred December 31, 2025 | Estonian EEZ (near Finland)

• Helsinki Police identified a dragline for an anchor, running for at least 10 kilometers, during the investigation into damage to a subsea telecommunications cable connecting Estonia and Finland.
• The Turkish-owned vessel *Fitburg* and its anchor are currently being examined for signs of dragging on the seabed.

US Intercepts Sanctioned Oil Tanker

January 9, 2026 | Caribbean Sea

• U.S. forces boarded another sanctioned oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea as part of the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to target sanctioned tankers traveling to and from Venezuela.

Storm Goretti Causes Power Outages and Travel Disruption

January 9, 2026 | Northern Europe (Britain, Germany, France)

• Storm Goretti disrupted travel and blacked out thousands of homes across Northern Europe.
• Around 380,000 households lost electricity in France, and 60,000 homes in Scotland and central England were affected.
• The state railway in Germany referred to it as one of the most severe weather events in recent years.

Russia Uses Hypersonic Missile Against Ukraine

Ongoing | Lviv region, Ukraine

• Russia launched its nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile against Ukraine for only the second time, striking the western region of Lviv. This marks a significant escalation in Russia’s aerial campaign.